Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Open Letter from Don Hazlett to Senator Pat Roberts, R-Kansas, on Raising Taxes

We hereby take a break from our regularly scheduled programming for a special feature - a letter from my Dad (a lifelong Republican) to his Senator, Pat Roberts. Who, I am pretty sure, is also a lifelong Republican.

Dad sent the letter last week and then shared it with his kids. He gave me permission to post. The pledge Dad refers to in his letter is the one circulated by Grover Norquist.

Dad is a lawyer, banker, entrepreneur, and intrepid cowboy. This is the first letter he has ever written to an elected representative.
Dear Pat,

As you know, I am a lifetime Republican as Harold can confirm, originally from Sterling and Topeka, now in Lawrence, and have supported you each time you have run to represent we Kansans.

Last week, I was put in a state of shock when I learned that you were one of the Senators who had signed a commitment with an out of state organization, headed by what appears to be radical individual, that you would never vote to raise taxes.

Pat, I do not want taxes raised either…BUT…if the survival of my country depends on making some hard decisions, and one of them is to raise taxes, I want you, Pat Roberts, my elected representative, open to consider that for the good of the country, and for the Kansans he represents, taxes should be raised, he can and will vote to raise them!! Pat, I and the people of Kansas sent you to Washington to represent us and make good decisions, whatever they may be.

By you promising that organization and person that you will not, under any circumstances raise taxes, or even consider raising them, you have given away your ability to properly represent us! At the present time, our government is approaching a state of being non-functional, as has been illustrated several times in the last two years. One of the reasons is that special interest groups such as the one I reference above, is being able to control a duly elected Congress.

Haven’t you forfeited your right to make your own decision when you signed the pledge to this individual and organization not to raise taxes? I will even go a bit further along this path…it is my understanding that the quid quo pro is that they in turn will not run anyone against you. Pat, if that isn’t selling your vote or caving in to extortion, I don’t know what it is.

Please explain to me where my analysis is incorrect. Is there something here I have misunderstood? Pat, you need to have more faith in the people of Kansas in making the judgment on how well you represent us. You will be surprised that they appreciate a Senator that thinks for himself, represents Kansans, and is willing to make the hard decision.

Pat, in closing, I respectfully ask that you renounce the pledge that you made to this organization.

Sincerely,

Don Hazlett 

(Emphases in original.)

Monday, November 21, 2011

Climate and Cooking - Pumpkin (and Pyrethroid) Coffee Cake, Yum!

Speaking as a home gardener, squash bugs are a pox and a pain and they are everywhere in North America. Sadly, squash bugs especially love pumpkins.

This year's haul from pumpkin patch.
Ah, the Great Pumpkin! If anything happens to you, how will Cinderella get to the ball? And what about the jack-o-lantern, the bright orange Halloween symbol that all little kids so adore? Not to mention Thanksgiving pumpkin pie, that fragrant dessert that embodies the American dream of plenty.

Climate change plus pumpkins... Some good questions here. How will climate change potentially affect squash bugs, and thus pumpkin crops? Will squash bugs enjoy warmer average temperatures, and if so, will that lead to increased pesticide applications? How might that affect the supply of pumpkins? How long will it be economical for us to visit the local pumpkin patch every fall and fill wheelbarrows with this nutritious and symbolic vegetable?

Before you read my speculations, first get started on this recipe. I don't always care for pumpkin myself, but this coffee cake is quite delicious. Pumpkin-doubters, you will like it. Pumpkin lovers, go bake a pie in order to get your pumpkin immersion experience.
PUMPKIN COFFEE CAKE
I was lucky to get a picture before the coffeecake disappeared.
(original recipe here, I altered ingredients and edited directions*)
Ingredients
TOPPING: (This makes too much, in my opinion. Save what you don't use in fridge to sprinkle over baked apples for dessert sometime.)
1/4 cup packed brown sugar (use more)
1/4 cup sugar (use less)
1 teaspoon ground cinnamon
2 generous tablespoons cold butter
1/2 cup chopped pecans (optional)

CAKE:
1/2 cup butter, softened
1 cup sugar (I used 1/2 cup brown sugar plus 1/4 cup refined)
2 eggs
1 cup sour cream (I used 1/2 c. sour cream and 1/2 cup lowfat vanilla yogurt)
1/2 cup pumpkin (canned, or cooked and mashed fresh pumpkin)
1 teaspoon vanilla
2 cups all-purpose flour
1 teaspoon baking soda
1 teaspoon baking powder
1/2 teaspoon cinnamon, nutmeg, whatever sounds good
pinch teaspoon salt

Directions

Preheat oven to 325 degrees. Grease and flour two 8-inch round baking pans... or, if you are like me, cuss when reading that instruction because you don't own any pan in that weird dimension, let alone two of them, why would you? I substituted a 9x9 square pan plus a funky little casserole dish and the Earth did not once waver in its orbit. Warning: The cake DOES rise high, so when you get to that step, do not overfill.

Make topping first: In a small bowl, combine sugars and cinnamon. Use two table knives or a pastry cutter to "cut" in the cold butter until the mixtures looks like very delicious crumbs. Stir in the nuts. Refrigerate topping mixture while you make the cake.

Cake: In mixer or by hand, cream together softened butter and sugar. Add eggs one a time, beating well after each addition. In separate bowl, combine sour cream, pumpkin, and vanilla, mix well. In another separate bowl, combine dry ingredients. Alternately add dry ingredients and sour cream mixture to creamed mixture in original mixing bowl. Beat on low until just barely blended.

Spread the batter into the two greased and floured pans (of your choice). Reminder: Do not overfill. Sprinkle both pans with the topping. Bake both pans together in the oven at 325 degrees for 40-50 minutes and, as always, when testing doneness please use your good judgement and observation skills. Toothpick should come out clean.

* The original recipe editor was totally asleep at the wheel, and/or had never actually tried to follow the recipe instructions.
Cake done? Mouth full? Back to squash bugs.
Squash bug nymphs. Credit: CSU Extension.

No, wait, let's talk about pumpkins first. Pumpkins probably originated in North America, most likely in Mexico, but they now grow on every continent except for Antarctica. Pumpkins are packed full of carotenoids and are very good for you, which is why I persist in eating them, argh.

According to the 2007 U.S. Agricultural Census, the pumpkin processing crop is not a huge moneymaker for Kansas - 135 farms harvested only about 1,008 acres - but my guess is that most of these pumpkin acres were indeed ag tourism-related, ie, the pumpkin patch. That economic impact was not accounted for in the census. Illinois grows and processes a whopping 95% of the pumpkins for the U.S. market.

Which likely means that Illinois also has one heck of a lot of squash bugs. Those little suckers (literally, they suck the sap from the leaves, causing the leaf to wilt, and the plant often dies and/or becomes diseased) hide under the leaves, are hard to see, and if you don't kill them in the nymph stage, you're pretty much screwed. Squash bugs will delight in overwintering in your garden or field. Long hard freezes are your friend, and in fact your best hope for controlling these pests.

Oh yeah, climate change... You see where this is going.

Let's review the general impact of climate change on insects: According to the Agriculture chapter (.pdf) in the U.S. Global Change report (2009), climate change and warming average temperatures will work out pretty well for most bugs:
Many insect pests and crop diseases thrive due to warming, increasing losses and necessitating greater pesticide use. Warming aids insects and diseases in several ways. Rising temperatures allow both insects and pathogens to expand their ranges northward. In addition, rapidly rising winter temperatures allow more insects to survive over the winter, whereas cold winters once controlled their populations.
Some of these insects, in addition to directly damaging crops, also carry diseases that harm crops. Crop diseases in general are likely to increase as earlier springs and warmer winters allow proliferation and higher survival rates of disease pathogens and parasites. The longer growing season will allow some insects to produce more generations in a single season, greatly increasing their populations.

Finally, plants grown in higher carbon dioxide conditions tend to be less nutritious, so insects must eat more to meet their protein requirements, causing greater destruction to crops.
Sounds like fun... for the insects.

Even today, when global warming scenarios are only starting to kick in, if you can effectively control squash bugs on a commercial scale without pesticides then it's news to me. Sure, there are integrated pest management options: plant bug-resistant pumpkin varieties, keep excess foliage in the patch to a minimum, rotate crops, etc. However, you are probably still going to have to apply some sort of pest control, most likely a pyrethrin or its synthetic counterpart, a pyrethroid.

So what are the potential impacts of climate change on commercial pumpkin crops? It seems logical that more bugs (if that happens, this is just me speculating, but it seems logical) will mean more pesticides. More pyrethroids on your pumpkin. However, using more pesticides usually tends to to result in more pesticide-resistant bugs, and squash bugs are becoming resistant to pesticides already.

Also, while pyrethroids are by no means the yuckiest of the pesticides, they are indeed very toxic to aquatic organisms. If you are growing pumpkins in a field or garden that suffers a lot of sediment run-off - aka, erosion - then the pyrethroid will very likely end up in nearby water bodies. (Sorry, fish and other aquatic life, but I really wanted that nice big orange pumpkin.)

I just heard my organic gardening friends gasp.

No. Don't leap to the conclusion that more pesticides on pumpkins will necessarily mean more dangers to consumers, too. Since effective pesticide applications have to be made so early in the pumpkin growing season in order to catch the squash bug nymphs, pesticide residues on pumpkins are not usually a big problem. Pumpkins were once on the Environmental Working Group's infamous "Dirty Dozen" list but have since been removed.

Overwhelmed? Eat some coffeecake, that's why it's there. Don't stop reading.

Also, remember that pests aren't the whole picture. Climate change could also have other impacts on pumpkins. Higher nighttime temperatures, less water availability and efficiency (meaning the plant is less able to effectively make use of the water it does have), uncertainty over planting dates as seasons and cycles shift, etc. These factors and others could all have an impact on yields. 

Have another bite, and I will tell you what all this means for you, and the future of pumpkin in your life. For now, I won't explain the ecosystem/ pesticide bit about troubles with dead fish and an aquatic food chain with gaping holes. (We'll just sum up that part as "not good.")

Pumpkin. So easy to freeze your own.
We don't know exactly what will happen when climate change meets pumpkins, but it's a good guess that the result will likely mean more expensive pumpkins. Some sort of pumpkin shortage is likely to occur in certain areas. Of course, some locations that couldn't grow pumpkins at commercial scale before might be able to in the future, too.

If it is economic to do so.

Even if new growers find themselves able to grow pumpkins - will they want to? Will the crop be profitable? Or will growing pumpkins cost them too much money in time, management, and inputs like pesticides?

I don't have any answers here. I'm just guessing. My usual prediction is that climate change will mean the slow yet inevitable disappearance of certain foods from our diet due to high costs and unavailability. Possibly losing chocolate and coffee is one thing. People might have gone crazy from losing those in their diet, but I don't think anyone ever suffered a major nutritional deficiency as a result. However, losing something as healthy as a pumpkin, a foodstuff indigenous to the New World that almost anyone can grow almost anywhere - that's another issue entirely.

So what do you do? Is the pumpkin doomed?

Again, unknown. However, here's what I think I will do. While it really sucks, you can in fact control squash bugs much easier in your small vegetable garden than can a commercial pumpkin farmer in a big field. Just get out there, inspect the plants, and physically kill the damn bugs. Yes, I'm serious. I recommend you use gloves, and get out there early in the season because destroying the eggs is a lot easier than killing the adults. The adults crunch. It's gross.

Such as it is, that's my plan. I will attempt to grow more of my own pumpkins, hope it works, squash the eggs, and hopefully, come fall, I will at least have a few pumpkins to show for it. Then if my local pumpkin patch has a bad year (or if I can't afford to shop there anymore), I have back-up in the freezer and I won't have to buy the expensive canned pumpkin to make my coffeecake.

How to freeze pumpkin flesh? So easy. Take off the top, scoop out the seeds, chop up the pumpkin into slices, then bake it or throw it in the crockpot, whatever. After it's cooked, scoop out the cooked flesh, smash it up, and freeze it. If you are very domestic and have no fear of pressure cookers, you could even can the pumpkin. Really. I probably won't, but you can.

Or, you can always bake the pumpkin into a delicious coffeecake.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

DIGEST: Kansas Conservation and Environment News, 11/17/2011

November has been insane. I see no signs of slowdown until.... until Christmas? Oh man.

Water
  • Five sand and gravel companies are seeking to increase dredging by almost 50% on the Kansas River, a jump from 2.2 million tons to 3.2 million tons. The Army Corps of Engineers is accepting public comment on this proposal through December 9, 2011. You can email your public comment to kale.e.horton@usace.army.mil. For more information on dredging plus a sample public comment, click here
  • Is it just me, or are the politics of flooding getting even more interesting, convoluted, and problematic? And I pay attention to the Missouri River, because what happens there inevitably will affect flood management on the Kaw. Climate change will probably make this all even more fun.
  • Recent drought in western Kansas has meant increased withdrawals from the Ogallala Aquifer. Story from Harvest Media.
Nitrogen and Cattle

Speaking of drought, ranchers are being warned to keep a close eye on their cattle - drought-stressed plants and forage are containing very high levels of nitrates, which poison the animals by impairing the blood's ability to transport oxygen. Quote: "The application of large amounts of nitrogen-rich fertilizers only exasperates the situation."

Climate Change
  • "Adapting to a Changing Climate" will be the theme of the Kansas Association of Conservation Districts (KACD) annual meeting this weekend (November 20-22) in Wichita. Looks like EPA Region 7 Administrator Karl Brooks will be one of the speakers. Also looks like a neat talk on sedimentation in Kansas reservoirs. (Program available here, .pdf.)
  • Some more on the ongoing carbon soil sequestration research at K-State. Cool. 
  • Nebraska put a hitch in the get-along of the TransCanada oil sands Keystone XL pipeline that was also planned to go through Kansas. The pipeline is now being re-sited around Nebraska's environmentally sensitive Sand Hills and high water tables in the Ogallala Aquifer. (What's that, the pipeline was going through the Ogallala and other sensitive environmental areas in Kansas, too...? Who knew.)
Air Quality

Tragic, tragic story from Chanute, Kansas, regarding the human health impacts of mercury emissions and other air quality issues with the Ash Grove cement kiln. (Thanks to Joe Ryan for the link.)

The EPA says the toxin levels are within accepted levels. However, some of the citizens of Chanute are raising questions. Quote: "We're not really tree-hugging liberals. But when your environment becomes damaged or you feel that you're being contaminated—I don't care what party you're in—this is your human life."

Renewables
  • Federal agencies (EPA and DOE) are considering another brownfield - the old Farmland fertilizer plant in Lawrence - for potential renewable energy production. 
  • K-State researchers are looking at using Conservation Reserve Program lands for cellulosic biofuels production. On one hand, good idea not to put these lands back in row crops (erosion, erosion, erosion). On the other hand... not a good idea to slosh nitrogen all over them, either, especially given the unclear and worrisome role of the nitrogen cycle in climate change.
Food
  • I complain about food prices a lot - and data from the annual Farm Bureau Federation survey of Thanksgiving dinner prices reinforces that, yup, price hikes are a problem: The retail cost of a basic Thanksgiving menu has increased about 13 percent this year.
  • Related (somehow): Rural land prices are up 25% this year in the Midwest. But don't worry, it's not a bubble. Housing wasn't either, if I recall. Nor was the internet. (Just saying.)
What I Want For Christmas

A $6.75 MailStop envelope from Catalog Choice. Just take all those dumb holiday catalogs, stick them in the envelope, send it back to Catalog Choice, and Catalog Choice will remove you from those mailing lists. YAY. You can also set up an account and do this yourself manually, year-round, on the main Catalog Choice site. A nice sustainable thing to do.

Darwin Award

I know this isn't conservation-related... but, copper thieves in rural areas, power lines, pick-up trucks. Um. Dudes. Don't do that. (The comments on the article will also make you kind of want to shoot yourself - instead of shooting whatever nut is out in front of your house, hooking up his bumper to your distribution line.)

In other news, as we all know, it's hunting season. Wear bright colors if you go hiking in the woods. Or, hey, wait on that for a while.

Monday, November 7, 2011

DIGEST: Kansas Conservation and Environment News, 11/7/2011

The big news appears to be that on Saturday night, Kansas felt the ripple effects from an 5.6 magnitude Oklahoma earthquake. I slept through the event, and only learned about it Sunday from (1) all the neighbors who did NOT sleep through it, and (2) someone texting me a fracking joke (BTW, that link takes you to an earlier USGS report on fracking and fifty earlier Oklahoma earthquakes. I haven't read it yet myself.)

The Digest is a new thing for the blog. I will post it when I can, hopefully two or three times a month. Part of my motivation is selfish; I need a better way than bookmarks and reader functions to sort all my links.

However, hopefully the info can also help other people.

Wind/ Transmission/ Energy
  • Siemens signed a lease for a 74,000 square foot warehouse in Wichita for a new wind power distribution center.
  • BP is buying 262 1.6 MW GE turbines for the 60,000 acre Flat Ridge II expansion. 
  • According to the CEP blog, Clean Line Energy appears to be proceeding quickly with its application to become a utility in the state of Kansas. The Clean Line project pending in Kansas is the Grain Belt Express, which is hoping to move 3,500 MW of wind out of state. To Missouri.
  • The DOE blog covers CEP's successful Take Charge program, which recently helped Kansans save more than $2.3 million in energy costs by improving energy efficiency.
  • The Kansas Supreme Court ordered the Wabaunsee County District Court to reconsider the second part of the Wabaunsee County wind case. The issue is whether the county zoning against wind power constituted a takings from private property owners under the Commerce Clause. (For a more lawyerly take, click here.) The case is Zimmerman v. Wabaunsee County, BTW.
  • Do you know what a "brownfield" is? That's jargon for "yucky contaminated former industrial land not bad enough (or too connected) to receive a Superfund designation." However, all the industrial infrastructure - transmission, substations, etc. - is usually still intact, and the land could indeed be suitable for new uses. EPA and DOE are studying the potential of a Kansas City brownfield for solar power and biogas generation. 
  • For those who have followed the military think tank CNA's studies on energy, environment, and defense over the past several years, there is a new one out on on solutions to U.S. dependence on foreign oil. (For the report on national security and climate change, click here; for energy and national security risks, click here; for links between national security, energy, and the economy, click here.)
  • We finally got a Wind for Schools turbine up here in Jeff County. Yay!
Conservation/ Environment/ Sustainability

  • WATER. Fabulous article by Michael Pearce at the Wichita Eagle on the huge problem that Kansas faces from sedimentation accumulating in our reservoirs. For example, John Redmond Reservoir (the cooling source for the Wolf Creek nuclear power plant owned by Westar Energy) now averages only six feet deep and has only 58% of its original capacity. Blue green algae is mentioned briefly, but it would be nice to see an equally in-depth article on that topic, too.
  • A K-State researcher will be discussing recent changes in Kansas land use practices regarding the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), in particular regarding potential uses for cellulosic biofuels. 
  • Due to recent droughts in the Midwest, stocks of native grass seed are running low. Over 300,000 new CRP acres have been enrolled in Kansas this year, and much of it needs to be seeded. There is some seed available, but it ain't cheap - some prices have already gone up as much as 25% due to the lack of supply.
  • Could the pathogen that causes "sudden oak death" become a factor in the Midwest? Yeesh.
  • The Department of Interior has identified its top 101 conservation priorities.  The two for Kansas are Flint Hills Legacy Conservation Area and the Kansas River Water Trail. 
  • The new Flint Hills Legacy Conservation Area was officially recognized back in October.  (So, DOI, that means there's a free space on the list for you to identify a new pending conservation priority for Kansas, right?)
  • Wichita ranks last in the 2011 Sustainable Cities Survey. Ow. Especially for a city that wants to attract more green business (see Siemens, above).
  • A nice sampling of Kansas migratory birds.
  • Wildreads is a blog brought to you by the Friends of the National Conservation Training Center. Currently, they are discussing Bill Sherwonit's Changing Paths, his book on the Alaskan Arctic Wilderness.
Climate Change

Kansas Coal Controversy
  • KDHE filed a brief telling the Kansas Supreme Court that the EPA had no major problems with the permit for the long-battled Sunflower Electric coal-fired power plant. The EPA sent a letter to the Court saying er, no, we've had problems with it for years and told both KDHE and Sunflower so multiple times. The Sierra Club plans to have fun with this one. As well they might.
Cattle
This is my blog, I am a rancher's daughter, and if I want to include cows in my idea of conservation and environment, then I may.
  • This came from CSMonitor but I post it because it gave me pause - Texas cattlemen are coping with climate change by leasing lands in Kansas? Really? Anyone know about this?
  • Very geeky yet readable article on heat stress in cattle. I liked it.
  • Every time I hear environmentalists take on the cattle industry, I want to scream. I'm not saying don't do it. No one, no industry, should be immune from consumers asking good questions. I am saying - please be smart about asking these questions, if you do. And try to have a clue about the importance of cultural differences in developing your communications strategy.
  • But to cheer you up (after I just was snarky), I really liked how this Cattle Network writer found some common ground.
Writing
  • Dear Google: Google Reader. What the...? (Way to pull a Netflix, people.) My favorite quote so far came from the Blogs of War Twitter feed: "Google Reader is like Gaddafi ugly now. Please undo."
  • And so, I am considering Feedreader. Or anything else, really, that is readable. You kind of have to be able to read the $@%!! feeds for them to be %$@^* functional.
  • Are you an author, trying to get Goodreads to work for you? Here is the unabridged guide from Novel Publishing Group.
  • For grammar/ editing geeks, this month's Q&A is now up at the Chicago Manual of Style. (OK, so no one but me will read that.)
No recipe in this entry. I know! But I am working on one for pumpkin coffee cake, so look for that to be posted soon. Pumpkins... and squash bugs, and climate change, and pesticides. YUCK.

But very yummy coffeecake.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Climate and Cooking - The Plight of the Endangered Banana-Chocolate Chip-Peanut Butter Muffin

Yes, such a muffin does exist. Like the sparrow - pshaw! who needs a sparrow? they're everywhere - this muffin's ingredients seem commonplace. Peanuts, bananas, chocolate, all are in plentiful supply at grocery stores throughout the, er, developed world. (The "er" because this all reminds me of the Barbie fishing pole conundrum. Yay progress.)

But if there were an endangered species listing for "Favorite Recipes Under Threat From Climate Change," this muffin would arguably be near the top of the list.

Husband: "Honey... Could you... please, you know... make more?"
So make the recipe, fast! Buy up all the ingredients, while you can still afford them... ha, wait. Peanut butter, affordable?

Sadly, this muffin's death spiral has probably already begun.

Banana-Chocolate Chip-Peanut Butter Muffins
(original recipe here)

1/2 cup butter (I'm not even going to discuss what climate change can do to dairy cows)
1 cup sugar (3/4 cup sugar is actually fine)
2 eggs (heat plus chickens, not good either)
1 cup mashed ripe bananas (see below for comments)
2/3 cup peanut butter (reduced fat works great, also see below)
1 tablespoon milk (Try whole milk. It cooks much better)
1 teaspoon vanilla extract (I bet vanilla isn't going to get any cheaper with climate change, either)
2 cups all purpose flour (I will leave grain crops for another day)
1 teaspoon baking soda (?anyone?)
1/2 teaspoon salt (ditto?)
3/4 cup miniature semisweet chocolate chips (again, see below - and I actually just dot the muffins with a few regular-sized dark chocolate chips for a topping)

Preheat oven to 350 degrees. In a large bowl, cream 1/2 cup butter and 1 cup sugar until light and fluffy. (Point of interest: Is your mixer running on electricity generated from the fossil fuels that produce the greenhouse gas emissions that lead to climate change? 60% of my electricity comes from coal power, mixed with a little bit of natural gas. The remaining 40% comes from hydro, wind, and nuclear).

Add three eggs, one at a time, beating well after each addition. SERIOUSLY. Do not mess up that step. BTW, never run your mixer over medium speed for this recipe, either. Beat in the mashed bananas, peanut butter, milk, and vanilla. Combine the flour, baking soda, and salt in separate bowl. Add to creamed mixture until just moistened. Do not over-mix. Add chocolate chips, if that is your plan.

Fill greased or paper-lined muffin tins about two-thirds full. Sprinkle with chocolate chips, again if that is your plan. Bake at 350 degrees (or 325 degrees convection) for 14-18 minutes, and/or use basic observation skills and common sense. Use your nose, too, the muffins should smell done. Cool muffins in tins for five minutes, before removing them to cool further on a wire rack.


WHY THESE MUFFINS ARE ENDANGERED

Let the IPCC focus on the vexing questions (ie, to what extent recent extreme weather events are related to climate change). I care about the big picture, too, but I also care about chocolate. Scientists definitely agree that chocolate beans - and coffee bean crops, too, for that matter - are at risk from climate change.

Crops can only grows within certain climate zones, and according to various seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature shifts. Most commercial crops are in fact adapted to a pretty fair range of variability. However, one of the major impacts of climate change is increased climate variability - such as unexpected temperature spikes or plunges, precipitation fluctuations, etc., often experienced out of season (ie, a long cold rainy spell at a weird time).

If this extreme variability strikes at a particularly vulnerable point in the crop cycle, such as during germination, bam. You are going to have some rate of crop failure. Ultimately, crop failure leads to higher prices at the grocery store.

Growing coffee and bananas together. Credit: Yahoo News.
Yeah. And if you have a muffin recipe, like this one, that depends on several ingredients that are already known to be near climate thresholds for their crop - these could turn into REALLY expensive muffins. Average yearly temperatures in coffee and chocolate growing areas are projected to increase at least two degrees Celsius over the next four decades. Temperature rise has an inevitable impact on the moisture cycle - evaporation, transpiration, etc. - and all of these shifts have the potential to be very hard on plants.

Peanut butter also experienced multiple problems with weather variability this year, including a long, deadly drought. When I think of peanut butter, my first thought is not actually these muffins - my first thought is the church food pantry, which always needs more peanut butter to distribute for families with kids. According to the LATimes, 90% of U.S. households consume peanut butter. I would bet than in lower-income households that can't afford much meat, peanut butter is proportionately a pretty critical protein staple. For now.

Bananas - well, this is an interesting story. Researchers are trying to figure out "intercropping" - or how to grow coffee beans and banana crops together, in order to help adapt to the effects of climate change. Can similar techniques work with cocoa beans...? The article doesn't say.

At any rate, my point: These muffins won't go out with a bang. They will go out slowly, with Husband and Toddler whimpering in the background because they miss them so. Due to rising food costs, I bet that over the next decade, the Endangered Banana-Chocolate Chip-Peanut Butter Muffin will likely disappear  from my baking rotation.

On one hand, it's just a muffin. On the other hand, think of all the farmers whose livelihoods are endangered. If you endanger livelihoods, you endanger economies, and if you endanger economies, political systems start shaking in their boots... and some of these political systems are none too stable to begin with.

Now I've depressed you.

Go eat a muffin!